Hot October cultural paper price rise superimposed

In October, the price rise of cultural paper was superimposed and the supply was tight

release date: Source: Asia Pacific Senbo Guangdong paper author: Sun Xiaolei

at the end of September, all paper mills issued a price increase notice again, with the range of 100, with the development of science and technology ranging from -200/ton, but at present, the price increase reflected in the market is not a problem, the problem is that supply exceeds demand

the pace of cultural paper price increase in 2019 has not stopped since the beginning of the year. The letter of price increase in February was issued in the middle and late January, and the ex factory price was increased by 200/ton, and then the letter of price increase in the month was issued continuously, and the price was increased by 200/ton per month; In the middle and late June, the demand turned weak, and a price increase letter of 100/ton was issued in July in order to stabilize the paper price. The price increase of 100/ton was announced in August and September. The ex factory price of double offset paper increased by about/ton after the holiday

paper publishing demand growth

at present, the supply of double offset paper market is tight, and the inventories of paper mills, dealers and terminal printing plants are low. September October is the traditional peak season of cultural paper. With the bidding of spring textbooks in 2020, printing plants will increase the purchase of cultural paper in advance of the order increase of publishing houses, which is good for the double offset paper market

2019 is the 70th anniversary of the founding of the people's Republic of China. It is estimated that the demand for new published books will increase by hundreds of thousands of tons, driving the demand for double offset paper. Although the number of new books decreased in 2018, according to the General Administration of publishing, the total number of books published increased, and the printing volume also increased steadily

paper supply

recently, there has been a process of air pollution in the northern weather. The Ministry of environment and ecology of Huanda, including refrigerators, televisions and other household appliances, sent a letter to the people's governments of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong and Henan provinces, asking all regions to start emission reduction measures in time according to the actual situation to alleviate the heavily polluted weather. At that time, printing plants and some paper mills around Beijing will stop production and reduce emissions, and the paper supply will be further reduced, unable to meet the current market demand. Due to environmental protection and other reasons, the output and supply of plastic tensile machine in cultural paper factory were reduced by about 100000 tons in September

the market concentration is further improved, the backward small and medium-sized production capacity is phased out, and the new production capacity of double offset paper comes from the expansion of large paper mills, but the release of new production capacity in the market in 2019 is slow

the import volume of uncoated paper fell significantly in 2019. As of September, the total import volume of uncoated paper was 230000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 160000 tons (-41%). The decrease in import caused further tension in domestic supply

however, due to higher foreign prices than China in 2019, the export of uncoated paper has increased, and the oversupply of export orders has made the original domestic market more tight. The export of uncoated paper increased slightly in 2019

low inventory

low inventory of paper mills: due to the continuous tight supply of paper mills, the inventory of paper mills began to fall gradually from the high level at the end of 2018. In August, the inventory of mainstream paper mills has been reduced to about 10 days, which is also unrealistic. At present, it is still in a state of short supply

low inventory of dealers: after inventory digestion at the end of 2018, the inventory of dealers fell rapidly, and the supply of paper mills has been insufficient, resulting in the failure to complete replenishment. The inventory has always been low, and the inventory of dealers has continued to decline in 2019

the peak demand season cycle in 2019 has come. The advent of the bidding season and the demand for new published books squeeze the supply of social sheets, and the supply of double offset paper is always insufficient. In recent years, the use of double offset paper has begun to increase. In addition to the traditional printing of teaching aids, industrial uses and leaflets have gradually increased, and the market demand has exceeded expectations

the inventory of paper mills, channels and terminals is low and cannot be replenished in large quantities. The release of new production capacity is slow and has not had an impact on the market; The market is in short supply, and the price of double offset paper will continue to rise